What the numbers say

The AI panel trails the best single model with an index of 46.9 against 48.6 (xAI Grok).
xAI Grok gets the outcome right in 50% of matches and beats the rule of thumb (34%).

Season 2026/27 · after matchday 7

The AI table

Models, panel and rule of thumb scored by the same system. Tap a row to highlight it everywhere on this page.

Pos.	Model	Picks	Exact	Outcome	Avg points	Index
1	grok-3	18	2 · 11%	50%	+0.54	48.6after matchday 7
2	Chaired by gpt-4o	23	2 · 9%	48%	+0.73	46.9after matchday 9
3	gpt-4o	32	1 · 3%	38%	-0.10	45.9after matchday 9
4	gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview	32	2 · 6%	44%	+0.28	45.1after matchday 9
5	claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929	3	0 · 0%	33%	-0.60	36.8after matchday 4
–	Table favourite wins 1:0	32	4 · 13%	34%	+0.12	–no index

Form = average points per matchday, most recent on the right.strong (+1.5 and up)positivenegativeweak (below −1.5)no pick

The panel is the joint final prediction of the four models. It reasons in prose, so the reasoning pillar of the index does not apply to it.

The rule of thumb always picks 1:0 for the table favourite. It is the zero line and gets no index, because it states neither confidence nor reasons.

Profiles

Every participant checked against the same questions, so they compare directly.

1.

49Index

stable

after matchday 7

Points form35 · 50 %
Calibration84 · 25 %
Reasoning40 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 50% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 63% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 72% of matches. 2 underdog picks came off.

Outcome right50% · 9/18

Exact scores2 · 11%

Wrong outcomes44%

Stated confidence63%

Bar = actually right (50%), tick = stated confidence (63%).

Reasons confirmed34%

At least one factor could be checked in 100% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Keine H2H-Daten verfügbar
cited 3× · not checkable
Bessere Tabellenposition und Tordifferenz
cited 2× · 100% confirmed
Heimvorteil Werder
cited 1× · 100% confirmed

2.

47Index

stable

after matchday 9

Points form33 · 67 %
Calibration75 · 33 %
Without checkable reasons the index is spread across the two remaining pillars.

Gets the outcome right in 48% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 67% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 78% of matches. 1 underdog pick came off.

Outcome right48% · 11/23

Exact scores2 · 9%

Wrong outcomes39%

Stated confidence67%

Bar = actually right (48%), tick = stated confidence (67%).

3.

46Index

stable

after matchday 9

Points form32 · 50 %
Calibration68 · 25 %
Reasoning51 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 38% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 67% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 78% of matches. 1 underdog pick came off.

Outcome right38% · 12/32

Exact scores1 · 3%

Wrong outcomes44%

Stated confidence67%

Bar = actually right (38%), tick = stated confidence (67%).

Reasons confirmed43%

At least one factor could be checked in 84% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Heimvorteil
cited 15× · 80% confirmed
Starke Form von Dortmund
cited 3× · 0% confirmed
Schwache Defensive Union Berlin
cited 2× · 0% confirmed

4.

45Index

stable

after matchday 9

Points form33 · 50 %
Calibration71 · 25 %
Reasoning44 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 44% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 66% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 63% of matches. 1 underdog pick came off.

Outcome right44% · 14/32

Exact scores2 · 6%

Wrong outcomes41%

Stated confidence66%

Bar = actually right (44%), tick = stated confidence (66%).

Reasons confirmed44%

At least one factor could be checked in 94% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Ausgeglichene Tabellensituation
cited 5× · 25% confirmed
Heimvorteil im Signal Iduna Park
cited 2× · 100% confirmed
Heimvorteil für Mainz 05
cited 1× · 0% confirmed

5.

37Index

stable

after matchday 4

Points form30 · 50 %
Calibration67 · 25 %
Reasoning20 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 33% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 68% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 67% of matches. No underdog pick came off.

Outcome right33% · 1/3

Exact scores0 · 0%

Wrong outcomes33%

Stated confidence68%

Bar = actually right (33%), tick = stated confidence (68%).

Reasons confirmed20%

At least one factor could be checked in 67% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Heimvorteil Bremen im Weserstadion
cited 1× · 100% confirmed
Augsburgs defensive Stabilität vs Bremens Heimstärke
cited 1× · 100% confirmed
Unions Krise mit nur 1 Punkt und schwacher Defensive (10 Gegentore)
cited 1× · 0% confirmed

Season view

Four angles on the same picks.

Index over time

The index (0–100) weights the last 3–8 matchdays, recent ones count more. Higher is better.

Hit profile

Share of each rung of the scoring ladder across all scored picks of a model.

xAI
11%
17%
11%
11%
44%
18
Panel
17%
13%
13%
35%
23
OpenAI
13%
16%
19%
44%
32
Google
13%
9%
16%
16%
34%
32
Anthropic
33%
33%
33%
3
Rule
13%
13%
9%
13%
44%
9%
32

Exact score+5
Goal-difference hit+4
Partial hit+3
Outcome hit+2
Near miss-1
Miss-2
Bad miss-3

Self-assessment

How often was a model right when it said it was X% sure? Above the line: more cautious than needed. Below: overconfident.

↔ stated confidence · ↕ actually right perfectly calibrated

Easy or hard-earned?

Hit rate when backing the table favourite – and when going against it (underdog or draw).

xAI Grok

Favourite picked46% · 13 picks

Against the favourite60% · 5 picks

AI panel

Favourite picked39% · 18 picks

Against the favourite80% · 5 picks

OpenAIs beste KI

Favourite picked36% · 25 picks

Against the favourite43% · 7 picks

Googles beste KI

Favourite picked40% · 20 picks

Against the favourite50% · 12 picks

Anthropics beste KI

Favourite picked50% · 2 picks

Against the favourite0% · 1 pick

Rule of thumb

Favourite picked34% · 32 picks

Against the favourite– · 0 picks

Matchday log

Every match, every pick, every score – ready to check. Tap a pick for the breakdown.

Day ranking
1.Googles beste KIØ +0.27 · 3/7
2.AI panelØ +0.02 · 3/7
3.OpenAIs beste KIØ -0.37 · 2/7

Match

xAI

Panel

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

Stuttgart
2:3Fri, 10/23, 06:30 PM
Gladbach
no pick
no pick
Stuttgart
2:3
Gladbach
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Anthropic
no pick
Leipzig
4:0Sat, 10/24, 01:30 PM
SV 07 Elversberg
no pick
no pick
Leipzig
4:0
SV 07 Elversberg
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Anthropic
no pick
Augsburg
1:1Sat, 10/24, 01:30 PM
Union Berlin
no pick
no pick
Augsburg
1:1
Union Berlin
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Anthropic
no pick
Mainz
2:3Sat, 10/24, 01:30 PM
Bremen
no pick
no pick
Mainz
2:3
Bremen
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Anthropic
no pick
Köln
0:0Sat, 10/24, 01:30 PM
Schalke
no pick
no pick
Köln
0:0
Schalke
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Anthropic
no pick
Paderborn
1:0Sat, 10/24, 01:30 PM
HSV
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
Paderborn
1:0
HSV
xAI
no pick
Panel
no pick
OpenAI
no pick
Google
no pick
Anthropic
no pick
Dortmund
1:0Sat, 10/24, 04:30 PM
Frankfurt
no pick
no pick
Dortmund
1:0
Frankfurt
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Anthropic
no pick
Hoffenheim
3:0Sun, 10/25, 02:30 PM
Leverkusen
no pick
no pick
Hoffenheim
3:0
Leverkusen
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Anthropic
no pick
Freiburg
1:3Sun, 10/25, 04:30 PM
Bayern
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
Freiburg
1:3
Bayern
xAI
no pick
Panel
no pick
OpenAI
no pick
Google
no pick
Anthropic
no pick