What the numbers say

The AI panel trails the best single model with an index of 46.9 against 48.6 (xAI Grok).
The rule of thumb gets the outcome right in 0% of matches. No model goes beyond that; the best (xAI Grok) reaches 0%.

Season 2026/27 · after matchday 5

The AI table

Models, panel and rule of thumb scored by the same system. Tap a row to highlight it everywhere on this page.

Pos.	Model	Picks	Exact	Outcome	Avg points	Index
1	grok-3	1	0 · 0%	0%	-2.74	48.6after matchday 7
2	Chaired by gpt-4o	1	0 · 0%	0%	-2.24	46.9after matchday 9
3	gpt-4o	1	0 · 0%	0%	-2.53	45.9after matchday 9
4	gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview	1	0 · 0%	0%	-3.30	45.1after matchday 9
–	Table favourite wins 1:0	1	0 · 0%	0%	-0.90	–no index

Form = average points per matchday, most recent on the right.strong (+1.5 and up)positivenegativeweak (below −1.5)no pick

The panel is the joint final prediction of the four models. It reasons in prose, so the reasoning pillar of the index does not apply to it.

The rule of thumb always picks 1:0 for the table favourite. It is the zero line and gets no index, because it states neither confidence nor reasons.

Profiles

Every participant checked against the same questions, so they compare directly.

1.

49Index

stable

after matchday 7

Points form35 · 50 %
Calibration84 · 25 %
Reasoning40 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 0% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 62% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 0% of matches. No underdog pick came off.

Outcome right0% · 0/1

Exact scores0 · 0%

Wrong outcomes100%

Stated confidence62%

Bar = actually right (0%), tick = stated confidence (62%).

Reasons confirmed25%

At least one factor could be checked in 100% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Heimvorteil moderat wirksam
cited 1× · 100% confirmed
Instabile Form beider Teams
cited 1× · not checkable
Leicht bessere Tabellenposition Gaziantep
cited 1× · not checkable

2.

47Index

stable

after matchday 9

Points form33 · 67 %
Calibration75 · 33 %
Without checkable reasons the index is spread across the two remaining pillars.

Gets the outcome right in 0% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 62% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 0% of matches. No underdog pick came off.

Outcome right0% · 0/1

Exact scores0 · 0%

Wrong outcomes100%

Stated confidence62%

Bar = actually right (0%), tick = stated confidence (62%).

3.

46Index

stable

after matchday 9

Points form32 · 50 %
Calibration68 · 25 %
Reasoning51 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 0% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 60% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 0% of matches. No underdog pick came off.

Outcome right0% · 0/1

Exact scores0 · 0%

Wrong outcomes100%

Stated confidence60%

Bar = actually right (0%), tick = stated confidence (60%).

Reasons confirmed33%

At least one factor could be checked in 100% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Heimvorteil Gaziantep
cited 1× · 100% confirmed
Ausgeglichene Tabellenposition
cited 1× · not checkable
Starke Offensive Fenerbahce
cited 1× · not checkable

4.

45Index

stable

after matchday 9

Points form33 · 50 %
Calibration71 · 25 %
Reasoning44 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 0% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 65% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 0% of matches. No underdog pick came off.

Outcome right0% · 0/1

Exact scores0 · 0%

Wrong outcomes100%

Stated confidence65%

Bar = actually right (0%), tick = stated confidence (65%).

Reasons confirmed0%

At least one factor could be checked in 0% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Auswärtsstärke von Fenerbahce als Favorit
cited 1× · not checkable
Dringender Siegesbedarf bei Fenerbahce nach zwei Niederlagen
cited 1× · not checkable
Gaziantep mit solider, aber schlagbarer Defensive
cited 1× · not checkable

Season view

Four angles on the same picks.

Index over time

The index (0–100) weights the last 3–8 matchdays, recent ones count more. Higher is better.

Hit profile

Share of each rung of the scoring ladder across all scored picks of a model.

xAI
100%
1
Panel
100%
1
OpenAI
100%
1
Google
100%
1
Rule
100%
1

Exact score+5
Goal-difference hit+4
Partial hit+3
Outcome hit+2
Near miss-1
Miss-2
Bad miss-3

Self-assessment

How often was a model right when it said it was X% sure? Above the line: more cautious than needed. Below: overconfident.

↔ stated confidence · ↕ actually right perfectly calibrated

Easy or hard-earned?

Hit rate when backing the table favourite – and when going against it (underdog or draw).

xAI Grok

Favourite picked– · 0 picks

Against the favourite0% · 1 pick

AI panel

Favourite picked– · 0 picks

Against the favourite0% · 1 pick

OpenAIs beste KI

Favourite picked– · 0 picks

Against the favourite0% · 1 pick

Googles beste KI

Favourite picked– · 0 picks

Against the favourite0% · 1 pick

Rule of thumb

Favourite picked0% · 1 pick

Against the favourite– · 0 picks

Matchday log

Every match, every pick, every score – ready to check. Tap a pick for the breakdown.

Day ranking
1.AI panelØ -2.24 · 0/1
2.OpenAIs beste KIØ -2.53 · 0/1
3.xAI GrokØ -2.74 · 0/1
4.Googles beste KIØ -3.30 · 0/1

Match

xAI

Panel

OpenAI

Google

Beşiktaş
3:0Fri, 09/11, 05:00 PM
Erzurum BB
E
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
Beşiktaş
3:0
Erzurum BB
E
xAI
no pick
Panel
no pick
OpenAI
no pick
Google
no pick
Samsun
1:5Sat, 09/12, 02:00 PM
Çorum FK
Ç
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
Samsun
1:5
Çorum FK
Ç
xAI
no pick
Panel
no pick
OpenAI
no pick
Google
no pick
Eyüp
0:2Sat, 09/12, 02:00 PM
Rize
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
Eyüp
0:2
Rize
xAI
no pick
Panel
no pick
OpenAI
no pick
Google
no pick
Alanya
2:2Sat, 09/12, 05:00 PM
Göztepe
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
Alanya
2:2
Göztepe
xAI
no pick
Panel
no pick
OpenAI
no pick
Google
no pick
Konya
1:0Sat, 09/12, 05:00 PM
Trabzon
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
Konya
1:0
Trabzon
xAI
no pick
Panel
no pick
OpenAI
no pick
Google
no pick
Gençlerbirliği
1:2Sun, 09/13, 02:00 PM
Kasımpaşa
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
Gençlerbirliği
1:2
Kasımpaşa
xAI
no pick
Panel
no pick
OpenAI
no pick
Google
no pick
Galatasaray
1:0Sun, 09/13, 05:00 PM
Kocaeli
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
Galatasaray
1:0
Kocaeli
xAI
no pick
Panel
no pick
OpenAI
no pick
Google
no pick
A
Amed SFK
5:0Sun, 09/13, 05:00 PM
Başakşehir
no pick
no pick
no pick
no pick
A
Amed SFK
5:0
Başakşehir
xAI
no pick
Panel
no pick
OpenAI
no pick
Google
no pick
Gaziantep
0:0Mon, 09/14, 05:00 PM
Fenerbahçe
Gaziantep
0:0
Fenerbahçe
xAI
Panel
OpenAI
Google