What the numbers say

The AI panel trails the best single model with an index of 46.9 against 48.6 (xAI Grok).
xAI Grok gets the outcome right in 44% of matches and beats the rule of thumb (33%).

Season 2026/27 · after matchday 9

The AI table

Models, panel and rule of thumb scored by the same system. Tap a row to highlight it everywhere on this page.

Pos.	Model	Picks	Exact	Outcome	Avg points	Index
1	grok-3	18	2 · 11%	44%	+0.70	48.6after matchday 7
2	Chaired by gpt-4o	36	2 · 6%	36%	+0.16	46.9after matchday 9
3	gpt-4o	36	2 · 6%	36%	+0.29	45.9after matchday 9
4	gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview	36	4 · 11%	39%	+0.34	45.1after matchday 9
–	Table favourite wins 1:0	36	4 · 11%	33%	+0.15	–no index

Form = average points per matchday, most recent on the right.strong (+1.5 and up)positivenegativeweak (below −1.5)no pick

The panel is the joint final prediction of the four models. It reasons in prose, so the reasoning pillar of the index does not apply to it.

The rule of thumb always picks 1:0 for the table favourite. It is the zero line and gets no index, because it states neither confidence nor reasons.

Profiles

Every participant checked against the same questions, so they compare directly.

1.

49Index

stable

after matchday 7

Points form35 · 50 %
Calibration84 · 25 %
Reasoning40 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 44% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 61% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 83% of matches. 1 underdog pick came off.

Outcome right44% · 8/18

Exact scores2 · 11%

Wrong outcomes22%

Stated confidence61%

Bar = actually right (44%), tick = stated confidence (61%).

Reasons confirmed46%

At least one factor could be checked in 83% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Heimvorteil
cited 3× · 100% confirmed
Bessere Tabellenposition
cited 3× · 100% confirmed
Bessere Tabellenposition von Magdeburg
cited 2× · 100% confirmed

2.

47Index

stable

after matchday 9

Points form33 · 67 %
Calibration75 · 33 %
Without checkable reasons the index is spread across the two remaining pillars.

Gets the outcome right in 36% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 65% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 69% of matches. 1 underdog pick came off.

Outcome right36% · 13/36

Exact scores2 · 6%

Wrong outcomes36%

Stated confidence65%

Bar = actually right (36%), tick = stated confidence (65%).

3.

46Index

stable

after matchday 9

Points form32 · 50 %
Calibration68 · 25 %
Reasoning51 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 36% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 66% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 69% of matches. 1 underdog pick came off.

Outcome right36% · 13/36

Exact scores2 · 6%

Wrong outcomes36%

Stated confidence66%

Bar = actually right (36%), tick = stated confidence (66%).

Reasons confirmed58%

At least one factor could be checked in 86% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Heimvorteil
cited 20× · 90% confirmed
Schwache Form beider Teams
cited 3× · 50% confirmed
Keine H2H-Daten verfügbar
cited 3× · not checkable

4.

45Index

stable

after matchday 9

Points form33 · 50 %
Calibration71 · 25 %
Reasoning44 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 39% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 61% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 58% of matches. No underdog pick came off.

Outcome right39% · 14/36

Exact scores4 · 11%

Wrong outcomes36%

Stated confidence61%

Bar = actually right (39%), tick = stated confidence (61%).

Reasons confirmed46%

At least one factor could be checked in 86% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Ausgeglichene Tabellensituation
cited 5× · 40% confirmed
Heimvorteil in der MDCC-Arena
cited 2× · 100% confirmed
Defensivschwäche von Dynamo Dresden
cited 2× · 0% confirmed

Season view

Four angles on the same picks.

Index over time

The index (0–100) weights the last 3–8 matchdays, recent ones count more. Higher is better.

Hit profile

Share of each rung of the scoring ladder across all scored picks of a model.

xAI
11%
11%
17%
33%
17%
18
Panel
19%
28%
31%
36
OpenAI
19%
28%
31%
36
Google
11%
14%
25%
33%
36
Rule
11%
31%
31%
36

Exact score+5
Goal-difference hit+4
Partial hit+3
Outcome hit+2
Near miss-1
Miss-2
Bad miss-3

Self-assessment

How often was a model right when it said it was X% sure? Above the line: more cautious than needed. Below: overconfident.

↔ stated confidence · ↕ actually right perfectly calibrated

Easy or hard-earned?

Hit rate when backing the table favourite – and when going against it (underdog or draw).

xAI Grok

Favourite picked47% · 15 picks

Against the favourite33% · 3 picks

AI panel

Favourite picked40% · 25 picks

Against the favourite27% · 11 picks

OpenAIs beste KI

Favourite picked40% · 25 picks

Against the favourite27% · 11 picks

Googles beste KI

Favourite picked48% · 21 picks

Against the favourite27% · 15 picks

Rule of thumb

Favourite picked33% · 36 picks

Against the favourite– · 0 picks

Matchday log

Every match, every pick, every score – ready to check. Tap a pick for the breakdown.

Day ranking
1.Googles beste KIØ -0.46 · 2/9
2.OpenAIs beste KIØ -0.47 · 2/9
3.AI panelØ -0.75 · 2/9

Match

xAI

Panel

OpenAI

Google

Darmstadt
0:0Fri, 10/23, 04:30 PM
FC St. Pauli
F
no pick
Darmstadt
0:0
FC St. Pauli
F
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
VfL Bochum
1:1Fri, 10/23, 04:30 PM
Wolfsburg
no pick
VfL Bochum
1:1
Wolfsburg
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Magdeburg
6:1Sat, 10/24, 11:00 AM
KSC
no pick
Magdeburg
6:1
KSC
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Hertha
1:0Sat, 10/24, 11:00 AM
DSC Arminia Bielefeld
no pick
Hertha
1:0
DSC Arminia Bielefeld
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Heidenheim
1:1Sat, 10/24, 11:00 AM
Energie Cottbus
E
no pick
Heidenheim
1:1
Energie Cottbus
E
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Nürnberg
0:1Sat, 10/24, 06:30 PM
Kaiserslautern
no pick
Nürnberg
0:1
Kaiserslautern
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Braunschweig
2:0Sun, 10/25, 12:30 PM
Hannover
no pick
Braunschweig
2:0
Hannover
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
V
VfL Osnabrück
3:0Sun, 10/25, 12:30 PM
Fürth
no pick
V
VfL Osnabrück
3:0
Fürth
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google
Kiel
3:0Sun, 10/25, 12:30 PM
Dynamo Dresden
no pick
Kiel
3:0
Dynamo Dresden
xAI
no pick
Panel
OpenAI
Google