What the numbers say

Anthropics beste KI gets the outcome right in 41% of matches and beats the rule of thumb (31%).

Season 2025/26 · after matchday 34

The AI table

Models, panel and rule of thumb scored by the same system. Tap a row to highlight it everywhere on this page.

Pos.	Model	Picks	Exact	Outcome	Avg points	Index
1	gpt-4o	54	7 · 13%	33%	-0.53	37.4after matchday 34
2	grok-3	54	6 · 11%	39%	-0.34	36.6after matchday 34
3	claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929	27	3 · 11%	41%	-0.27	36after matchday 32
4	gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview	54	5 · 9%	35%	-0.63	34.3after matchday 34
–	Table favourite wins 1:0	54	7 · 13%	31%	-0.08	–no index

Form = average points per matchday, most recent on the right.strong (+1.5 and up)positivenegativeweak (below −1.5)no pick

The rule of thumb always picks 1:0 for the table favourite. It is the zero line and gets no index, because it states neither confidence nor reasons.

Profiles

Every participant checked against the same questions, so they compare directly.

1.

37Index

stable

after matchday 34

Points form30 · 50 %
Calibration68 · 25 %
Reasoning22 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 33% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 58% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 48% of matches. No underdog pick came off.

Outcome right33% · 18/54

Exact scores7 · 13%

Wrong outcomes56%

Stated confidence58%

Bar = actually right (33%), tick = stated confidence (58%).

Reasons confirmed24%

At least one factor could be checked in 80% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Heimvorteil
cited 33× · 73% confirmed
Starke Form von Schalke
cited 3× · not checkable
Schwache Form beider Teams
cited 3× · not checkable

2.

37Index

stable

after matchday 34

Points form29 · 50 %
Calibration73 · 25 %
Reasoning15 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 39% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 60% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 56% of matches. No underdog pick came off.

Outcome right39% · 21/54

Exact scores6 · 11%

Wrong outcomes48%

Stated confidence60%

Bar = actually right (39%), tick = stated confidence (60%).

Reasons confirmed16%

At least one factor could be checked in 63% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Fehlende Daten zur aktuellen Form
cited 4× · not checkable
Heimvorteil von Hertha BSC
cited 3× · 33% confirmed
Starke Formkurve von Holstein Kiel
cited 3× · not checkable

3.

36Index

stable

after matchday 32

Points form30 · 50 %
Calibration66 · 25 %
Reasoning18 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 41% of matches and judges its own confidence realistically. Backs the table favourite in 26% of matches. No underdog pick came off.

Outcome right41% · 11/27

Exact scores3 · 11%

Wrong outcomes48%

Stated confidence40%

Bar = actually right (41%), tick = stated confidence (40%).

Reasons confirmed13%

At least one factor could be checked in 96% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Keine statistischen Daten verfügbar
cited 7× · not checkable
Keine Head-to-Head-Bilanz vorhanden
cited 4× · not checkable
Keine aktuellen Form- und Tabellendaten verfügbar
cited 3× · not checkable

4.

34Index

stable

after matchday 34

Points form28 · 50 %
Calibration69 · 25 %
Reasoning12 · 25 %

Gets the outcome right in 35% of matches and is overconfident doing so (states 57% confidence on average). Backs the table favourite in 43% of matches. No underdog pick came off.

Outcome right35% · 19/54

Exact scores5 · 9%

Wrong outcomes48%

Stated confidence57%

Bar = actually right (35%), tick = stated confidence (57%).

Reasons confirmed15%

At least one factor could be checked in 67% of predictions.

Most cited reasons

Ausgeglichene Ausgangslage
cited 4× · not checkable
Fehlende statistische Datengrundlage
cited 4× · not checkable
Fehlende aktuelle Leistungsdaten
cited 3× · not checkable

Season view

Four angles on the same picks.

Index over time

The index (0–100) weights the last 3–8 matchdays, recent ones count more. Higher is better.

Hit profile

Share of each rung of the scoring ladder across all scored picks of a model.

OpenAI
13%
13%
11%
52%
54
xAI
11%
9%
13%
13%
44%
54
Anthropic
11%
15%
11%
48%
27
Google
9%
17%
17%
46%
54
Rule
13%
13%
44%
11%
54

Exact score+5
Goal-difference hit+4
Partial hit+3
Outcome hit+2
Near miss-1
Miss-2
Bad miss-3

Self-assessment

How often was a model right when it said it was X% sure? Above the line: more cautious than needed. Below: overconfident.

↔ stated confidence · ↕ actually right perfectly calibrated

Easy or hard-earned?

Hit rate when backing the table favourite – and when going against it (underdog or draw).

OpenAIs beste KI

Favourite picked35% · 26 picks

Against the favourite32% · 28 picks

xAI Grok

Favourite picked40% · 30 picks

Against the favourite38% · 24 picks

Anthropics beste KI

Favourite picked43% · 7 picks

Against the favourite40% · 20 picks

Googles beste KI

Favourite picked39% · 23 picks

Against the favourite32% · 31 picks

Rule of thumb

Favourite picked36% · 36 picks

Against the favourite22% · 18 picks

Matchday log

Every match, every pick, every score – ready to check. Tap a pick for the breakdown.

Day ranking
1.xAI GrokØ -1.29 · 3/9
2.OpenAIs beste KIØ -1.55 · 2/9
3.Googles beste KIØ -1.76 · 2/9

Match

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

Google

Dynamo Dresden
2:1Sun, 05/17, 01:30 PM
Kiel
no pick
Dynamo Dresden
2:1
Kiel
OpenAI
xAI
Anthropic
no pick
Google
Fürth
3:0Sun, 05/17, 01:30 PM
Düsseldorf
no pick
Fürth
3:0
Düsseldorf
OpenAI
xAI
Anthropic
no pick
Google
Schalke
1:0Sun, 05/17, 01:30 PM
Braunschweig
no pick
Schalke
1:0
Braunschweig
OpenAI
xAI
Anthropic
no pick
Google
DSC Arminia Bielefeld
6:1Sun, 05/17, 01:30 PM
Hertha
no pick
DSC Arminia Bielefeld
6:1
Hertha
OpenAI
xAI
Anthropic
no pick
Google
Hannover
3:3Sun, 05/17, 01:30 PM
Nürnberg
no pick
Hannover
3:3
Nürnberg
OpenAI
xAI
Anthropic
no pick
Google
Darmstadt
0:2Sun, 05/17, 01:30 PM
Paderborn
no pick
Darmstadt
0:2
Paderborn
OpenAI
xAI
Anthropic
no pick
Google
Magdeburg
0:1Sun, 05/17, 01:30 PM
Kaiserslautern
no pick
Magdeburg
0:1
Kaiserslautern
OpenAI
xAI
Anthropic
no pick
Google
KSC
1:2Sun, 05/17, 01:30 PM
VfL Bochum
no pick
KSC
1:2
VfL Bochum
OpenAI
xAI
Anthropic
no pick
Google
SV 07 Elversberg
3:0Sun, 05/17, 01:30 PM
Münster
no pick
SV 07 Elversberg
3:0
Münster
OpenAI
xAI
Anthropic
no pick
Google